Trump's Megabill Aimed to Crush Solar—So Why Are Sunrun and First Solar Stocks Surging?

Despite political headwinds, clean energy stocks defy expectations and climb.

Trump's Megabill Was Supposed to Kill Solar. Here's Why Solar Stocks Are Rising Anyway

In a surprising twist that's rattling political narratives and exciting investors, shares of US solar giants Sunrun Inc. and First Solar Inc. have posted notable gains—despite the passage of a controversial Republican-backed economic package that many feared would devastate the clean energy sector.

The legislation, dubbed the “Megabill,” is a sweeping financial overhaul pushed forward by former President Donald Trump's allies. It included the removal of several clean energy incentives, tighter regulations on solar imports, and increased fossil fuel subsidies—moves critics said would choke solar innovation and market growth.

But Wall Street isn't buying into the doom-and-gloom.

Rising Stocks, Rising Questions

Shares of First Solar (FSLR) have climbed over 5% this week, while Sunrun (RUN) posted a 4.2% uptick, stunning analysts who predicted a market sell-off. So what's fueling this unexpected rally?

First Solar, in particular, is seen as one of the few solar companies not heavily reliant on Chinese imports. With the Megabill tightening import restrictions, domestic producers like First Solar may actually benefit , as the bill indirectly shields them from foreign competition.

Despite federal pushback, several US states—especially California, New York, and Illinois—continue to double down on green energy goals. State-level tax credits and mandates are providing crucial lifelines to solar firms like Sunrun, which focuses on residential solar installations.

“Markets are forward-looking,” explains Daniel Huang, a renewable energy analyst at RiverEdge Capital. "While this bill may hurt in the short term, the global trend toward decarbonization is irreversible. Investors are betting that solar will remain a dominant force in energy by the 2030s."

A Political Signal That Missed Its Target?

Critics of the bill say the market response reveals a growing disconnect between Washington politics and economic reality.

“This was supposed to be a nail in the coffin for solar,” said clean energy advocate Marcy Callahan. “Instead, it's proving how resilient and profitable green tech has become—even in hostile policy environments.”

What's Next for Solar?

While the industry still faces headwinds—including higher financing costs and ongoing supply chain challenges—analysts agree the worst-case scenario has not materialized. In fact, some now suggest the Megabill could backfire politically, energizing pro-climate voter bases ahead of the 2026 midterms.

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Trump's Megabill may have been designed to suppress America's clean energy boom, but early indicators show that solar stocks—and investor confidence—are shining brighter than expected.

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