Capitol agenda: "Medicaid moderates" are repelled by Thune
Republican senators from a variety of ideological backgrounds oppose the House's Medicaid cuts. They also have enough people to make adjustments.
The Senate is in the midst of a megabill crisis.
About the next three days, most of the arm-wrestling about what should be changed in the House-passed version of the "big, beautiful" measure will take place behind closed doors. Senate Finance's meeting tonight and the "Big Six" meeting involving Senate Majority Leader John Thune, Speaker Mike Johnson, respective tax committee chairs, and top administration officials on Wednesday are examples of strategy huddles.
Gaining the support of the "Medicaid moderates," a cross-section of members who share the House's opposition to the cuts and have the clout to compel revisions, would be one of Thune's toughest obstacles in passing the package by July 4. These include Senators Susan Collins of Maine, Lisa Murkowski of Alaska, and Josh Hawley of Missouri. To approve the megabill, Thune has to lose just three GOP senators.
In preparation for challenging discussions, Thune and Senate Finance Chair Mike Crapo (R-Idaho), who is balancing Medicaid and tax disputes in the package, are speaking with important members. Some GOP senators who are concerned about benefit cuts suggest they might also accept the House's Medicaid work requirements, which Crapo told Jordain he personally supports. Beyond that, however, they are avoiding public pledges.
The House-passed provider tax freeze, which most states utilize to help pay their part of Medicaid expenditures, is one potentially significant sticking point. Hawley has expressed worries, while former West Virginia governor Sen. Jim Justice described it as a "serious issue." Kevin Cramer (N.D.) and other Republican senators, however, want to go even farther in cutting the provider tax rather than merely freezing it.
Back home last week, Republicans saw firsthand the political quagmire that surrounds Medicaid. Days of negative news and Democratic campaign fodder resulted from Iowa Sen. Joni Ernst's (R-Iowa) "we are all going to die" answer to town hall criticism regarding the cuts, and her choice to intensify the remarks.
In the first episode of her podcast, "The Conversation," Mehmet Oz, the director of the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services, told Dasha Burns of POLITICO that the Medicaid work requirements in the bill will "future proof" the program.
The deficit hawks are another group. Sen. Rand Paul (Ky.) vowed to vote against the megabill due to an included debt-limit hike after President Donald Trump warned him over the weekend to support it.
Paul is not the only one making noise, though. Sens. Rick Scott (Fla.) and Mike Lee (Utah) are also advocating for greater cuts, and Sen. Ron Johnson (Wis.) is calling for a line-by-line budget review to identify areas where additional expenditure might be cut.
On CBS' "Face the Nation" on Sunday, Paul alluded to the power wielded by hardliners by stating: "I would be very astonished if the bill at least is not adjusted in a good way."
Other things we are observing:
— Senate Dems Move: According to a "Dear Colleague" letter sent by Minority Leader Chuck Schumer on Sunday, Senate Democrats are getting ready to contest portions of the GOP megabill alongside the lawmaker. He drew attention to a particular House clause that detractors claim would make it harder for judges to impose contempt orders.
— Initial assessments of Trump's budget proposal: This Thursday, the House Appropriations Committee will start marking up the sections of Trump's fiscal 2026 budget request that deal with military construction, veterans affairs, and agriculture. Democrats do not seem interested in supporting Trump's request, which includes sweeping cutbacks and a 22% decrease in non-defense spending. Their votes are crucial in September to prevent a government shutdown.
— Hitting the Hill: This week, representatives of the Trump administration will testify in support of the president's fiscal 2026 budget. This includes Acting FAA Administrator Chris Rocheleau on Wednesday, Education Secretary Linda McMahon on Tuesday, and Howard Lutnick, the Secretary of Commerce, on Wednesday and Thursday.
